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The historic Ashes series could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also see the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Older Squad Fascination Builds

For two or three years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this team and especially the bowling unit. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test team being above thirty, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a problem: a Test squad featuring a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I can’t remember ever being so confident at the start of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a group of simultaneous departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a train that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only miss the first Test, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance experiences a far greater change with two key bowlers missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Test matches coming on after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what further injuries the first Test may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how complicated stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in series and a pattern of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Unclear

The latter part of the contest may witness the primary four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane choice, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this level is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it opportunity for the visiting team. You can hear that change a-coming, coming around the corner, and the English team hasn't seen the success since they can't recall when.