Starmer's Backers Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.