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Just 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – going beyond the winner citywide, and precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and emerged as a kind of well-known figure this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Patterns and Unexpected Results

How was your night?

I had to do that because they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the tally frequently! I felt somewhat anxious initially: The candidate led the early vote by 12 points, but there were large groups of ballots that came in later and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible where election day went somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo would have essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However Mamdani gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse, young, tenants and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president previously went for Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the night was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to surpass half. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I hope he does so afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any area. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained all of these Republicans on Staten Island with a high participation. I believe there was significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened prior to the former president endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and homeowners supported the independent. So there existed some opposition. However no, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election there was coverage on whether the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential there. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. Plus, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I think that each urban center in the US can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – since youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.